Villanova Vs. Virginia

On January 29th, 2017, with just a tenth of a second left on the clock, Donte DiVincenzo leaped up and tipped in a missed three-point attempt from Josh Hart, leading the (1) Villanova Wildcats to victory against the (12) Virginia Cavaliers. From a moment that lives on as one of the best from two of the most dominant programs of the 2010s to now—a 10-point, 70-60 loss in the Hall of Fame College Series for a 2-3 Wildcats squad that needed a jumpstart after losing to their nearby rival, Saint Joseph’s. With a Virginia team no longer at the heights it reached in 2019, and Villanova on the way outside looking in for the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament, how have these two teams reached this point in their journeys this year? Let’s rewind the season, then rewind these games to see what the key differences are in the matchup from 2017 to 2024.

For Villanova, losing to Columbia on November 6th set the tone that this team would be fighting each and every night. Then, never being able to get a footing in their colloquially known “Holy War” matchup against the SJU Hawks just three days before their matchup with Virginia led them to a 2-2 record, with wins over low-ranked squads NJIT and Lafayette. This team is not the 2017 team that had expectations to win back-to-back national championships––and very well may have if Omari Spellman had been granted eligibility by the NCAA due to high school academic issues, something Villanova faces again with 2024 4-star recruit Matthew Hodge forced to academically redshirt for similar reasons. Coach Neptune’s 2024-25 squad was slated as a bubble team to start the season, but their tournament outlook is now bleak, with early losses to Saint Joe’s and Columbia. 

As for Virginia, the shocking retirement of Tony Bennett on October 17th, just weeks before the start of the 2024 season, followed a slew of decommitments, with the 2019 champion citing the “current environment” of college basketball as the reason for his retirement. Despite this, the team is off to a solid start in 2024 under interim head coach Ron Sanchez, with a 3-0 record going into the matchup with Villanova. Not expected to be a tournament team, UVA is slated to finish around the middle of the pack in the ACC. 

The broader juxtaposition of the 2017 and 2024 teams tells a lot about the different talent levels of these two programs at these points in their history. In 2017, each team was ranked in the top 15 nationally, with Virginia holding a KenPom ranking of 2 and Villanova 4 at tip, making it one of the best matchups of the regular season. This year, neither team was ranked nationally, with Virginia at 94th and Villanova standing at 56th in KenPom. In 2017, Villanova was the reigning 2016 national champion, with Virginia reaching the Elite 8 that same year. In 2024, Virginia just scraped into the tournament, losing in the round of 64, and Villanova was bounced in round 1 of the NIT. The 2017 Villanova team had over five eventual pros, and Virginia had four; this status is yet to be determined for either of the 2024-25 teams.

Now that we’ve established these two mighty programs are not currently at the top of their game, what about the 2017 and 2024 games themselves? Back in 2017, both teams were extremely staunch defensively, both grading in the top 15 in defensive efficiency. This was made clear by the low-scoring affair, with Villanova scoring the fewest points they would in 2017, and Virginia the third-fewest, behind only a 54- and 53-point performance versus Miami (FL) and UNC. In terms of the star power on these two teams, Villanova legends and Knicks stars Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges both scored 15 points, with Brunson knocking down 9 out of his 10 FT attempts. On the other side, current Cleveland Cavalier Ty Jerome had 15 points on 3-6 shooting from deep.

Fast forward to 2024, and neither of these two teams is particularly known for their defensive prowess, with Virginia landing at 46th in defensive efficiency and Nova at 108th. Although the game started off in Villanova’s favor, with the ‘Cats leading by 7 about four minutes in, the Cavaliers collected themselves and took control from then on, leading for over 30 minutes of the game. Villanova looked very out of sorts defensively, allowing Virginia to shoot 56% from three on 25 attempts and 51% from the field. On the offensive side, Eric Dixon was the only bright spot for Nova with 20 points, while Isaac McKneely of Virginia had 23 on 6-of-6 shooting from deep. Virginia’s defense held the ‘Cats to 28.1% from three and 35.2% from the field––the worst marks of this young season for the ‘Cats.

In 2017, Virginia took a tough loss but still seemed to be a national championship contender. Although their journey didn’t end in a championship that year, they reached the peak of college basketball just two years later. After Donte’s putback buzzer-beater, Villanova looked like the favorite to win its second national title, with one of the best teams and systems in the country. Although they did not end up doing so, they would win two championships in three years and cement themselves as one of, if not the, best teams of the 2010s.

With NIL and the transfer portal, the current era of NCAA basketball changes quickly. Yet, neither of these teams will tell you they feel the same as after their 2017 matchup. The 2-3 ‘Cats are reeling from this loss, looking to prevent further embarrassment on Tuesday, November 19th, against the University of Pennsylvania Quakers. Virginia, although 3-0, faces uncertainty with its next coach and the decommitment of many 2025 recruits. Only time will tell where these two programs will go next, but it appears that the headwinds have arrived, and the spectacular runs of the 2010s feel very, very far away.